Every Monday (or the first trading day of the week), Bespoke Premium and Institutional clients receive our S&P 500 Stock Seasonality report. Using the last ten years worth of price data, our Stock Seasonality report looks at the median returns for the S&P 500, its eleven sectors, and its 500 individual stocks. In the report, we highlight the five stocks in each sector that have historically been the best and worst performers over the next two weeks. For each stock, we also include information such as median returns, the percent of time each stock or sector is positive/outperforms the S&P 500, and its historical performance over the next two weeks for each of the last ten years. To see a sample, check out a recent report here. To receive regular access to the full S&P 500 Stock Seasonality report, sign up for a Bespoke Premium membership now.
With July kicking off today, we wanted to highlight S&P 500 stocks that have been the most consistent to the upside during the entire month over the last ten years. The table below lists the 13 stocks in the S&P 500 that have been up during the month of July in at least nine of the last ten years. Leading the way higher among the stocks listed is Celgene (CELG) which has seen a median gain of 11% with gains in every July except 2011 when it fell 1.7%. Behind CELG, another biotech — Alexion Pharma (ALXN) — has seen a median gain of 9.7% with gains in July in each of the last ten years.
Number three on the list is Wynn Resorts (WYNN), which has been up in every July over the last ten years except 2012. Over those ten years, the stock has seen a median gain of 7.4%. WYNN is digging itself into a bit of a hole to start the month as the stock is down 3% following weaker than expected revenue growth in Macau gaming revenues, but there are still another 30 days left in the month, so we shall see.
The fourth and fifth best-performing stocks are two that are going in seemingly different directions. Amazon.com (AMZN) has been a star for the last several months, and July also tends to be a good month as the stock has seen a median gain of 7.0% with gains in each of the last ten years except for 2014. Behind AMZN, IBM has been a proverbial stick in the mud for years now, but at least July has been good for the stock as it has seen a median gain of 5.4% with gains in every July except 2015 when it fell just 0.4%.
Obviously investors shouldn’t trade solely on the calendar, as macro or stock-specific events can come up and trump seasonal tendencies. That being said, there certainly is evidence that the market and many stocks do indeed follow seasonal patterns, so it pays to be aware of them