Individual investors have been downright depressed for much of the year, but they’ve shown signs of turning the corner in the last few weeks.  According to the weekly sentiment survey from AAII, bullish sentiment increased this week from 31.1% up to 36.9%. It’s the highest weekly reading since early March.  What has been most impressive, though, is the gains over the last few weeks.  In the last three weeks, for example, bullish sentiment has increased by just under 15 percentage points, which is the largest three-week gain since October 2014.  Since the end of May, we have seen an even more impressive improvement with bullish sentiment jumping by over 19 percentage points, making it the largest seven-week increase since November 2011.  Given these large increases, surely we must be reaching some frothy levels when it comes to sentiment, right?  Wrong. The reality is that at 36.9%, bullish sentiment is still below its bull market average of 39.95% and has been below 40% for 37 straight weeks!  Sentiment may be starting to percolate, but the bulls are hardly running yet.

AAII Bullish Sentiment 071416


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