Jobless claims were practically a non-event this week, increasing from 268K up to 271K and coming in 2K below consensus forecasts. While there wasn’t much in the way of notable developments in this week’s data, sometimes no news is good news. After all, the current backdrop for employment is extremely healthy and this week’s data didn’t do anything to change that.
Even with this week’s small increase in claims, the four-week moving average dropped for the second straight week, falling from 277K down to 273.75K. It may not be at a post-recession low, but with less than 7K separating the current level from the post-recession low, it’s still very close.
The real star of the jobless claims report this week was once again non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) claims. This week’s level of 263.2K was 4.4K above last week’s level, but for the current week of June, it is well below levels we have normally seen since 2000 (Avg 348K). In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1973 to find a week where NSA claims were lower for the current week of June than they are now.