Weekly jobless claims released this morning came in at 211K, which was below expectations of 215K and the 212K reading last week. The seasonally adjusted number has now spent 71 straight weeks below 250K and 220 consecutive weeks below 300K. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.
After rising to 225K last week, the four-week moving average also saw a modest decline. The moving average fell to exactly where it was at the start of the month (220.3K). This comes as one of the recent highs of 230K has rolled off of the average. Turning to next week, assuming we see a similar print to this week, another data point of 230K will fall out of the average, so we may see another drop in the four-week average as well.
As per usual, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) jobless claims came in well below the average for the current week since 2000. At 191.3K, NSA claims are over 100K below this average. This week’s print is also the lowest for the current week of the year of the current cycle and going back to at least 2000. With this new low for the current week of the year, the past couple of weeks’ releases have been a welcome change from the YoY increases in the NSA data that has been frequently observed this year.
Overall, the data has been somewhat mixed recently. Though initial claims more or less held steady this week, continuing claims saw the opposite result as they rose from the previous week and missed forecasts with a print of 1,676K (1,666K expected). While initial claims appear to still be chugging along just fine (YoY increases aside), continuing claims still have not made a new low since last October. That is not necessarily a horrendous thing for either considering the data has also not rocketed higher by any stretch, but it does confirm that the pace in claims falling has somewhat slowed relative to previous years.