Jobless claims continued their amazing run this week with the 70th straight week of sub 300K readings.  While economists were forecasting claims to come in at a level of 269K, the actual reading was 254K.  That’s the lowest weekly reading since April and the fourth lowest weekly reading of the entire recovery.  The fact that claims continue to stay so low underlies the consistency of the current state of the employment sector.

070716 Initial Claims SA

The four-week moving average of claims also declined this week, falling from 267.25K down to 264.75K.  For this measure, claims are also down to their lowest level since late April and less than 9K below the cycle low of 256K 11 weeks ago in April.

070616 Initial Claims SA 4 WK

On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, claims increased by less than 4K to 267.1K.  For the current week of the year, this is more than 100K below the average of 374K since 2000.  In fact, to find a week where NSA claims were lower at this time of year, you have to go all the way back to 1973.

070616 Initial Claims NSA


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