One of the tools included in the new Interactive section of our website covers market seasonality. This tool shows the S&P 500’s historical performance over the upcoming one week, one month, and three months over the last 10 years. Users can then also enter historical date ranges and find stocks and ETFs that have historically performed the best over these custom time periods. The Seasonality tool also allows you to screen custom portfolios and see which holdings in the portfolios have historically performed the best and worst over any time frame throughout the year. The Seasonality tool is available to all Premium and Institutional clients, so if you are not currently subscribed, start a two-week free trial for immediate access.
Checking in on today’s Seasonality tool, we were greeted with a rather ominous short term trend. As shown in the gauges below, the S&P 500’s median return from the close on 5/10 through 5/17 has historically been a decline of 1.78%, which ranks as the worst one week period for the market of the calendar year! Looking further out, things get better in terms of performance (they can’t get any worse) as the S&P 500’s median one-month change from the close on 5/10 has been a gain of 0.97%, which ranks in the 46th percentile relative to all other one-month periods. Finally, the S&P 500’s median three-month performance has been a gain of 3.20%, which ranks in the 64th percentile.
In the table below, we look a little closer at just how bad the upcoming one-week period has been for equities over the last ten years. Even as the stock market has enjoyed one of its strongest and longest bull markets of all-time, the period from 5/10 through 5/17 has been a big exception. Since 2009, the week has only seen positive returns twice and in all but two of the years where equities have been down, the decline has been well over 1.5%.