The latest reading on initial jobless claims disappointed coming in at 242K versus expectations of 240K. That is up from last week’s downward revision to 229K. As shown in the inlaid chart below, claims have moved up to some of the highest levels in a over a year with the past several weeks marking relatively range bound readings. This week’s increase to 240K marks a move to the high end of that recent range.
Before seasonal adjustment, claims came in at 219K. That is roughly in line with the readings of the comparable week off the year for the past few years excluding 2020 and 2021 when claims were more elevated due to the pandemic. Claims are also generally following seasonal trends with the current week having consistently seen declines week over week historically. With that said, claims have yet to make a new low on the year.
Whereas initial claims were a slight disappointment, continuing claims surprised with an improvement this week. Rather than the increase to 1.865 million that was expected, they dropped all the way down to 1.805 million, the lowest reading in three weeks. Albeit improved in the near term, the uptrend in continuing claims remains in place as claims are around the highest levels since early 2022.
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