May 2021 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price numbers were released today, and they showed a continued surge in home prices all around the country.  The month-over-month gains of 2-3% are similar to what we used to see on a year-over-year basis prior to COVID, but now the year-over-year gains all stand in the teens and twenties.  At the top of the list is Phoenix which saw home prices rise 3.75% from April to May and 25.86% from May 2020 to May 2021.  Below is a table showing MoM and YoY gains for the twenty cities and the composite indices tracked by S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller.

Home prices have surged nearly uniformly across the country since COVID first hit.  As shown below, since February 2020, the composite indices are up 18-19%, while most cities are up between 14% and 21%.  Chicago and New York have seen a slightly smaller jump in prices than the rest of the country.  Miami, LA, Portland, Charlotte, Dallas, Tampa, Denver, San Francisco, and Boston are all up between 19-21% since COVID.  Three cities stand out for even bigger price jumps.  As shown, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Diego are up quite a bit more than the rest of the group with gains between 28-30%.

Below we show where home price levels are now versus their low-points after the mid-2000s housing bubble burst.  Most lows for home prices were seen sometime between 2010 and 2012.  As shown, the composite indices are now up 88-96% from their lows, while 13 of 20 cities are up more than 100% off of their lows.  San Francisco is up the most at +177%, followed by Phoenix, Seattle, and Las Vegas (all up 150%+).  At the other end of the spectrum, New York is up the least off its lows at +49%.

Notably, the post-COVID surge in home prices has left all but two cities above their prior all-time highs made during the mid-2000s housing bubble.  Las Vegas and Chicago are the only two cities that have yet to eclipse their prior highs, but they’re now very close at just -1% and -3%, respectively.  Miami, New York, and Washington DC are the three cities that have most recently made new highs.

Below are charts showing historical levels of home prices across the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices.  These really show how much prices have spiked post-COVID.  Prices were already trending higher coming into the pandemic, but over the past 17 months, they look more like a rocket does at take-off than a passenger jet!  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller

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