The August data for S&P/Case-Shiller’s home price indices was released today, and it showed month-over-month growth of 0.42% for both the 10-city and 20-city composite indices. Year-over-year versus last August, the 10-city was up 4.33% while the 20-city was up 5.13%. As shown below, Phoenix, New York, Tampa, Dallas and Seattle grew the most month-over-month, while San Diego, Las Vegas, and Cleveland grew the least. New York was up the second most month-over-month, but it’s up the least year-over-year at just 1.73%. Is the monthly reading a sign that New York is finally set to see a pick-up in prices?
The chart below shows how much each of the cities tracked by Case-Shiller have seen prices rise since their late-2000s housing bust lows. As shown, the national composite indices are all up roughly 40% from their lows at this point, but San Francisco has nearly doubled with an increase of 95%. Detroit and Las Vegas have seen the second biggest gains at +70%, followed by Phoenix, Portland and Atlanta, which are all up just over 60%. On the bottom end is New York with a gain of just 17% from its lows, and Cleveland with a gain of 20%. Charlotte, DC, Boston and Chicago have all seen below-average gains as well.
The chart below compares current prices for each city to their peaks during the housing bubble in the mid-2000s. As of now, the National US index is just a hair below its prior bubble highs, which is an amazing thing. The 20-city composite is still 7% below its prior highs, while the 10-city is still 9% below. Even still, seven of the twenty cities tracked have seen home prices rise above their prior housing bubble highs, and Denver and Dallas prices are more than 30% above their prior highs.
The main cities that still have a ways to go to get back to their prior highs are Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami and Tampa. These are areas of the country that saw the most speculative prices during the housing bubble, and they also saw the biggest crashes when the bubble burst.
You can track trends in home prices for each city going back to 1989 using the charts below. Cities shaded in green are ones where prices have eclipsed their prior bubble highs from back in 2005-2006.