On Tuesday we highlighted that the S&P 500 was about to enter a more bullish period of the year from a seasonal perspective, and as the last few days have passed, the seasonal tailwinds have only gotten stronger. Bespoke Premium subscribers have access to our Stock Seasonality tool. When users visit the Seasonality tool, the first thing shown is the historical performance of the S&P 500 over the next week, month, and three months based on the last 10 years of trading. While seasonality is of course not a be-all, end-all investment strategy, we do think it’s helpful to use as one of many inputs.
As shown below, the S&P 500 has historically done extremely well in the weeks and months ahead based on the calendar year. Over the next week, the S&P has seen a median gain of 1.50%, which is better than 96% of all one-week periods of the calendar. Over the next month, the median gain for the S&P has been +2.66% (better than 88% of all one-month periods), while the next three months has seen a massive median gain of 6.99%. The next three months (October 11th through January 10th) on the calendar have seen the S&P perform better than 99% of all other three-month periods. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium to access our interactive investor tools and actionable research reports.