With just a few days left in the quarter, equities are catching a bid, and through mid-day Friday, the S&P 500 is up just about 6% from its recent low last Thursday (6/16).  The bounce has a lot of investors asking whether last week’s leg lower marked a capitulation point from which the market can stage a meaningful rally.  A lot of investors and 401(k) accounts would most certainly welcome that type of move, but if you’re starting to feel a bit like Bill Murray’s character Phil Connors in the movie Groundhog Day, there’s a reason.

The chart below shows the QTD performance of the S&P 500 in Q1 versus Q2 of this year. In both quarters, the market started out with fleeting gains that quickly turned into steep losses with little relief throughout the quarter.  The only relief in Q1 came in the second half of March when the S&P 500 rallied 11% off its lows in eleven trading days.  This time around, the late quarter rally took longer to materialize, but in the five trading days since last Thursday’s (6/16) close, the S&P 500 has rallied 6% with another four trading days left to go.  In order for investors to have the confidence that this current rally has more behind it, they’re going to want to see more than just a late quarter rally but also some follow-through into Q3.  Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.

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