Get Bespoke’s 2017 Outlook Report with a 30-day free trial to Bespoke’s premium research! Click here to learn more.
Below is an updated look at our global equity market trading range screen using 30 of the largest country stock market ETFs traded on US exchanges. For each ETF, the dot represents where it’s currently trading within its range, while the tail end represents where it was trading one week ago. The black vertical “N” line represents each ETF’s 50-day moving average, and moves into the red or green zones are considered overbought or oversold.
When the dot is to the right of the tail, the ETF has upside momentum, and vice versa when the dot is to the left of the tail. In regards to overbought/oversold levels, when prices move to extremes in either direction, we typically look for an eventual mean reversion.
While the US has been in rally mode since the election, not all countries have seen the same returns. In fact, even after today’s big global rally, just 12 of the 30 country ETFs we track are in overbought territory. And most countries just spiked into overbought territory Thursday, especially European ones.
Notably, the two most overbought countries in our screen are Italy (EWI) and Russia (RSX). While Italy is still down 13% year-to-date, it’s now up 6.6% since the US election. And Russia’s stock market (RSX) has more than doubled the gain that the S&P 500 (SPY) has seen since the election.
The worst two performing countries since the election are Mexico (EWW) and Brazil (EWZ). While Brazil is down 11.35% since the election, it’s still up 61% year-to-date. Mexico, on the other hand, is down 14.76% since the election and 9.7% year-to-date.