Today’s advance read on Q1 GDP came in weaker than expected this morning, missing forecasts by 0.3 percentage points. While economists were forecasting a SAAR reading of 1.0%, the actual reading came in at 0.7%. The fact that this report was weaker than expected should come as a surprise to no one. The table below was pulled from our Interactive Economic Indicator Database (available to all Institutional clients) and shows the originally reported advance read on Q1 GDP versus estimates dating back to 1999. In the last 19 years, this report has only been better than expected four times. In the last fifteen years, it has only been better than expected once, and in the last nine years, it has been weaker than expected every year! This trend gives new meaning to the phrase, “If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, and try again!”  When it comes to forecasting errors, Q1 GDP has been the Mother of all Seasonal Distortions (MOASD).

GDP

Print Friendly, PDF & Email