One positive development we’ve seen throughout this economic expansion is a rising share of unemployed workers finding employment and a falling share of workers moving out of employment and into unemployment. As shown in the chart below, a record low share of those employed became unemployed over the last 12 months. Conversely, the share of unemployed workers who moved into the ranks of the employed has risen steadily higher over the last several years. With these two series continuing to trend in the right direction, recession risk as evidenced by labor market flows remains very low.
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There’s also a secular story in labor market flows. As shown in the chart below, over the last 12 months a record share of the labor force has moved directly from employment to reporting they are no longer in the labor force. This is a decent proxy for retirement; workers who want to remain employed would go from holding a job to unemployed. To be fair, flows of those not in the labor force to employment (a measure of both young people entering the jobs market and cyclical strength) as a share of those not in the labor force have also been very strong. That’s one reason job growth has held up despite large outflows from the labor force.