Below is a look at the S&P 500’s performance on Fed Days by month since 1994 when the Fed began announcing its policy decision on FOMC meeting days. June Fed Days have typically seen muted returns, with the S&P averaging a small gain of just 0.06%. June is actually the second worst month of the year for Fed Days behind only February, which is the only month that has seen the S&P post negative Fed-Day returns (-0.30%). In terms of consistency to the upside, June is the worst month for Fed Days with the S&P seeing gains just 40% of the time. April Fed Days, on the other hand, have been the most consistently positive with gains 75% of the time.
June Fed Days have also seen low volatility relative to other months. The average absolute one-day change for the S&P on June Fed Days has been +/-0.61%, which is tied with February as the third lowest vol month for Fed Days. August and March Fed Days have historically been the most volatile with average moves up or down 1%+. Start a two-week free trial to one of Bespoke’s premium memberships to access our suite of investment tools and daily equity market research.