Below is an updated look at where the 30 Dow stocks are currently trading within their respective ranges. In this update, we have included two performance metrics for each Dow member as well — 1) performance since the last time the Fed hiked interest rates on 6/29/2006, and 2) performance since the Fed has been on hold at ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), which began on 12/16/08.
In terms of current levels, as you can see in the trading range area, all but 3 of the 30 Dow stocks have moved out of oversold territory over the last week. We’ve seen a clear “rising tide lifts all boats” move higher, with names like Home Depot (HD), Intel (INTC), Nike (NKE) and UnitedHealth (UNH) actually moving up towards overbought territory. Most names in the index remain below their 50-day moving averages, though, even though they’re no longer oversold. There’s certainly plenty of room to run higher before things get overheated again.
In terms of performance since the last time the Fed hiked interest rates in June 2006, you’ll notice that Apple (AAPL) is the main standout with a gain of 1,271%. Keep in mind that Apple wasn’t a Dow member back in 2006, though. The best performing Dow stock that was in the index back in 2006 is Walt Disney (DIS) with a gain of 254%. The worst performing Dow stock since June 2006 is General Electric (GE) by a wide margin. Since the last Fed rate hike, GE is down 23.4%. Caterpillar (CAT) has been the second worst performer with a gain of 0.7%.
Performance numbers are generally stronger when looking at change since ZIRP began in December 2008, because the broad market was lower then than it was in June 2006. Interestingly, though, big blue-chip names like IBM, MCD, KO, PG, VZ, WMT and XOM have done worse since ZIRP began than they’ve done since the last time the Fed hiked in 2006. XOM is up 20% since June 2006, but it’s down 10% since December 2008.