The housing market continues to blow the doors off, with total annualized existing home sales coming in at a rate of 6.85mm in October, including 6.12mm single family units. Those numbers are only 5.7% and 3.5% respectively below the record levels from the housing bubble of the mid-2000s. Check out the enormous numbers recently in the chart below:
Unlike during the prior housing bubble, inventories are extremely low now both on an absolute basis (down 20% YoY for all homes and 23% YoY for single family) and relative to demand; both total existing and single family home inventories are below 2.4 months of demand. Inventories relative to demand are half of what they were at the last housing market peak on a months’ supply basis.
With so much demand for homes and so little supply, prices have exploded higher in the past few months. After adjusting for seasonality, prices are up a staggering 15% since the May lows, driven by both strong demand and a shift in mix towards higher-priced homes. This analysis was initially published in our post-market daily note The Closer. Click here to start a free trial to Bespoke Institutional and receive our Closer report and much more for the next two weeks, featuring more commentary and data on macro markets.