US equity futures are pointed lower once again this morning with the S&P 500 SPY ETF trading down more than 80 basis points pre-market. This morning’s weakness exacerbates what was already a weakened position heading into this morning. As shown in our Trend Analyzer snapshot of US index ETFs below, every one of them is already trading below its 50-day moving average. Both small and mid-caps are in oversold territory trading more than one standard deviation below their 50-DMAs. Of the large-cap ETFs, the Dow 30 (DIA) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are the closest to oversold, while SPY is only slightly below its 50-DMA by 0.42%.
A quick look at where S&P 500 sector ETFs are trading shows the defensive posture that investors have taken recently. Cyclical sectors like Energy, Materials, Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary are all below their 50-day moving averages, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Utilities — all defensives — are the only sectors trading in overbought territory. Utilities (XLU) has seen massive buying over the last week, moving higher by 2.27% into extreme overbought territory (>2 standard deviations above its 50-DMA).
It’s a similar situation globally. Every one of the regional ETFs tracked in our Trend Analyzer tool are below their 50-day moving averages, and more than half are in oversold territory. Three are at extreme levels on the downside — two emerging markets ETFs (EEM, IEMG) and the All Country Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ). The Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ) is the closest to its 50-DMA at -0.54%. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke for full access to our research tool-kit.