After experiencing a big drop in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s victory last November, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has rallied from $34 up to $38+ over the last couple of months. Today the ETF is trading just 10 cents away from a new 52-week high, which is at $38.32. As shown in the chart below, from a one-year perspective, EEM looks like it has nice breakout potential.
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While the one-year chart looks bullish, the long-term chart for EEM going back to 2003 looks much less enticing. As shown below, the ETF — which is a way for US investors to gain exposure to the emerging markets asset class — has been making a series of lower highs for the last ten years now. To get above the top of the downtrend line that has formed, EEM needs to move into the mid-$40s, which is 20% higher from current levels.