Below we update weekly economic growth trackers that we produce internally as well as the New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index which is updated on a regular basis. Over the last five weeks, our index has reported negative YoY growth in output in four weeks, including a modest drop for the most recent week of data. For its part, the Weekly Economic Index has continued to rebound from the April lows and is at its highest levels since the March economic data collapse. That index still shows output down almost 3% YoY, but its ongoing rebound is suggesting a much stronger Q4 than what our index is tracking. Our data suggests output will be up a modest 3.8% QoQ SAAR in Q4, versus more than 10% QoQ SAAR forecasted by the WEI data. For context, Atlanta Fed GDPNow data suggests something more in-between, with their data tracking 5.6% QoQ SAAR.  This analysis is published regularly in our post-market daily note The Closer.  Click here to start a free trial to Bespoke Institutional and receive our daily Closer report for the next two weeks, featuring more commentary and data on macro markets.

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