Along with Netflix (NFLX), both eBay (EBAY) and IBM are also reporting Q2 earnings after the close of trading this evening. If you’re interested in our analysis of Netflix earnings, start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium and read our recent BIG Tips report on the subject. Below are snapshots of both eBay and IBM from our popular Earnings Explorer tool that’s fully available to Bespoke Institutional subscribers.
As shown, eBay has historically beaten consensus analyst EPS estimates 81% of the time, while it has beaten sales estimates slightly less at 77%. In terms of eBay’s stock price reaction to earnings, the stock has gained on the first trading day following quarterly earnings just a notch above half the time. The likelihood that EBAY will rise or fall in price in reaction to earnings has basically been a coin flip throughout the stock’s history. Be sure to check out some of the other stats included in the snapshot of eBay. You can find this same info for nearly every publicly traded US stock in our Earnings Explorer tool.
At 82%, IBM has an even stronger EPS beat rate than EBAY, but its sales beat rate is much weaker at just 49%. And IBM’s stock price has only posted gains on its earnings reaction days 44% of the time since 2002. Notice the slowdown in sales that IBM has seen over the last few years in the top right chart below.
When you look up an individual stock in our Earnings Explorer tool, we also provide detailed info for every single quarterly earnings report that each company has posted over the last 17+ years. Users can break the reports up by quarter so that we can look specifically at IBM’s historical Q2 reports for example. Below is a snapshot of IBM’s historical Q2 reports. We’ve highlighted the stock’s one-day price reaction to the earnings reports as well. As shown, when IBM reported earnings last July, the stock gained 3.27%. But the stock fell on its Q2 earnings day in each of the three prior years.
Overall, however, IBM has actually averaged a gain of more than 1% on its Q2 earnings reaction day when you look at all of its reports since 2002.
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