Easter Returns 1Easter is right around the corner, and the seasonality around the week of Good Friday is pretty mixed.  Historically, the week ending on Good Friday has been a good time to hold stocks, with average returns of 83 bps since 1945 and 58 bps in the last thirty years.  But as shown below, this year we’ve seen dramatic underperformance versus the historical average since Ash Wednesday.  In those scenarios where the index finishes the Ash Wednesday to Good Friday stretch down, we tend to see underperformance in the final week of the time frame, as shown in the table at left.  That said, we’re seeing a nice pop in stocks to start the week with the S&P 500 up over 1% as of this writing.  But as shown on the chart below, that still has us underperforming by about 2.4% versus prior cycles.

Easter Returns 2

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