The next couple of days could prove to be very important for the semis.  After falling just shy of 20% from its intraday high in mid-April to its intraday low at the end of May, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rallied over 10% to yesterday’s intraday high before pulling back into the close.  The fact that the SOX pulled back where it did is notable because it came right as the index had retraced 50% of the decline from the April highs.  As shown in the chart below, the mid-point between April’s high and May’s low was 1,445.78, and yesterday’s high was less than five points lower at 1,440.8.  Semis opened lower again this morning, so the longer the weakness persists, the more it will look like a failed rally.  But if the group bounces from here or even marks time near current levels and then bounces, it would send a positive signal for the group and broader tech in general.

Using our Custom Portfolio tool that’s available to subscribers, we created the custom portfolio below of large-cap stocks in the SOX index to show where each semiconductor name stands relative to its normal trading range.  If you’re a Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional member, you can track this group going forward by clicking here to add it as a new custom portfolio.  For each stock listed, we show the most recent closing price, how the stock has performed YTD and over the last five trading days, and where the stock is trading relative to its 50-DMA.  On the right side of the table, we also include our proprietary Trend and Timing Scores along with where each stock is with respect to its trading range.

Looking through the list, the majority of stocks are up over 4% in the last week, so they’ve definitely had a nice few days.  Despite the gains, though, just two stocks listed are trading at overbought levels, and only four are above their 50-DMA.  Given they aren’t even close to overbought, the group clearly has more room to run.  At the same time, though, if the rally fails to hold before the majority of members could even get back above their 50-DMAs, that wouldn’t say much for the group’s prospects.  To use our Custom Portfolio and Trend Analyzer tools, start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.

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