Bespoke’s Countdown to Liftoff index measuring the Fed Funds futures markets predicted date of a rate hike ticked lower following a huge 295,000 nonfarm payrolls print this morning.  We’ve seen big selling of all kinds of interest rate products (ten year Treasury yields have surged 13 bps; yield-focused ETFs like XLU, IYR, or XLP are all down over 1.5%) so it’s almost surprising the index hasn’t moved more.  Many pundits reiterated their call for a June rate hike today, and that date is now very much in play.  However, as we’ve noted before, if that’s going to happen we’ll need to see the “patient” language removed from the Fed’s statement and then continued strong data into the spring, especially in the labor market.  For now, our estimate is less aggressive than that, but after the last two jobs reports, June is very, very much in-play.

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