US agricultural markets have been closely focused on the very slow pace of corn planting this year. The result was a 12% surge in corn prices for July delivery, under the assumption that wet weather and low prices would incentivize a small crop planting this year.

As shown in the left chart below, USDA observers report the crop is only 49% planted so far, the slowest pace since 1993, a year that saw corn harvests fall over 30% from the year before. That’s reason to suspect supply of corn will be light come harvest time, but it’s important to note that there’s not much historical relationship between corn planting progress in the 7th week of the season and the following year’s production growth versus the prior year.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to read more on commodity markets and the global macro backdrop.

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