Consumer Confidence for the month of November showed a larger than expected decline falling from October’s upwardly revised reading of 101.4 down to 96.1. Economists had been forecasting a more modest drop to 98.0. Unlike many other indicators which have really seen meaningful bounces off their COVID lows, Consumer Confidence isn’t one of them.
Breaking down confidence levels by both Present Conditions and Expectations, sentiment towards the current state of affairs declined slightly falling from 106.2 down to 105.9. Expectations, on the other hand, saw a more significant decline falling below 90 and less than three points from the low back in August. While the Present Situation index understandably saw a sharp drop at the onset of COVID, the Expectations Index had already started trending lower in late 2018 and has continued that trend right on through the pandemic.
One reason consumer sentiment has been slow to improve is that the employment picture remains uncertain. The Jobs Plentiful index remained unchanged at 26.7 in November. That’s well off the low of 16.3 in March but still far from February’s reading of 46.5 let alone the high of 50.3 in August 2019. Click here to see Bespoke’s premium membership options and start a free trial for instant access to our research and interactive tools.