Last week, we noted that Initial Jobless Claims have not been changing by much recently. That trend of steady claims has continued this week as seasonally adjusted numbers came in unchanged from last week’s upward revised 218K. That is slightly above estimates of 215K but still healthily below recent highs of 230K. Looking back on the May data, claims came in at 212K in the first two weeks and finished with 218K in the final two weeks. So again, labor data has been steady as far as this indicator goes. The streak of weeks below 250K now sits at 73 and claims have also sat below 300K for a record 222 consecutive weeks. That all may come as a surprise after yesterday’s huge miss in the ADP employment number, but to make sense of this, it seems that while labor data could see some slowing in job creation, people are also not exactly losing jobs at a worrying rate either. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.
The last of the recent highs in the seasonally adjusted data has now come off of the less volatile four week moving average. Even with last week’s revision higher and this week’s 218K print, the moving average has fallen for its fourth week in a row down to 215K from 216.75K last week. While those declines are a good sign, the moving average also still has yet to make a new low since doing so back in mid-April when it fell to 201.5K.
In line with seasonal patterns observed over the past several years, non-seasonally adjusted jobless claims fell this week to 188.7K. That is the lowest reading of the current cycle and going back to at least 2005. In addition, this week’s non-seasonally adjusted number is well over 100K below the average for the current week of the year since 2000 of 292.04K.