In what is a busy week of labor data, results so far have been mixed.  Ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll Report for June, ADP payroll data released this morning missed forecasts of 140K, coming in at just 102K. While this set the stage for a potentially weaker NFP number on Friday, Initial Jobless Claims (released one day early due to the holiday) came in slightly stronger than forecasts and improved modestly from the previous week.  While not making significant moves lower, claims continue to hold at healthy levels.  Last week’s original print of 227K was revised up to 229K but this week saw an 8K drop to 221K.  Claims were expected to fall to 223K.  This stronger than expected print keeps the streaks going as claims have remained below 250K for a record 91 weeks and below 300K for a record 226 weeks.

The less volatile four-week moving average edged 0.5K higher to 222.25K this week. This is as an input of 219K from late May rolled off the average to be replaced by this week’s higher 221K. The moving average has stayed in the upper end of its range from the past several months and has not made any meaningful move lower since April.

Turning to the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data, while the current week of the year typically sees an uptick in claims, the NSA number actually fell from 225.8K to 222.8K this week. For the current week of the year, this was the first time that claims fell week over week on an NSA basis since 2013. Headed deeper into the dog days of summer, claims data historically begins to see some seasonal increases so this drop is less likely to be repeated in the coming weeks. Regardless, this week’s number was the lowest reading for the current week of the year of the current cycle for what was all in all a healthy release. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.

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