It has been a pretty solid morning in economic data as every release so far has beaten estimates. That includes Initial Jobless Claims which came in at 212K this week versus expectations of 220K. Not only was this below estimates, but the indicator has now come back down from its relatively elevated levels from the past three weeks in which we had seen two readings of 230K and another of 228K. Additionally, this week marked the 70th consecutive week of the indicator sitting under 250K and the 219th week below 300K.
Four weeks ago, claims came in at its lowest print in a half-century for both the seasonally adjusted number and the four week moving average. This week that low of 193K in the SA number has rolled off of the moving average, leading the less volatile look at the data to tick up to 225K from 220.3K last week. The moving average has risen for four straight weeks from its lowest level of the cycle, now sitting 23.5K above this recent low.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the data still appears healthy as it dropped down to 187.7K from 204K last week. That is the second lowest reading of 2019 (lowest was 183.8K for the final week of March) and it also sits well below the average for the current week of the year since 2000. One trend we made note of last week was the increasing number of weeks with a YoY increase in the NSA number. This week’s decline snapped a streak of three straight prints with a YoY increase. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.