With Fiat-Chrysler USA, Ford, and GM reported, we now have auto sales figures for ~45.8% of the US auto industry for the month of May. Below, we show our tracker for sales.  We use seasonal adjustment factors and current market share reported to update the estimate for final sales that we are tracking as manufacturers report throughout the day. At this point, sales are tracking a 16.84mm SAAR versus the 17.3mm SAAR estimate from economists. That said, it’s still early, and we’ll have to wait and see more brands report before we can be confident what the final number will be.

Update 10:53 AM: With Mazda, Audi, Nissan, and VW reported, we’re up to 60% of market share reported and sales are still tracking below 17.1mm SAAR, versus 17.3mm estimated.

Update 11:25 AM: We now have an update from Toyota, which reported a 9.6% decline in sales YoY.  That brings our tracker down to 16.98mm SAAR based on market share reported and seasonal adjustment factors; that’s versus 17.3mm expected as-of this morning. 74% of the US new auto market has reported as-of Toyota’s announcement.

Update 2:17 PM: Until a few minutes ago, it looked like auto sales would miss with a track of 17.185 mm SAAR as-of Kia’s report at 1:33 PM.  However, Hyundai (the last major manufacturer to report, leaving only Volvo, Jaguar, and Maserati left out) reported a gain, with sales up 11.6% YoY.  That was enough to push our tracking to 17.319mm SAAR for total vehicle sales in May, just a hair above the estimated 17.3mm SAAR rate. Because we are using a model that does not differentiate between car and light truck sales, relying instead on aggregate seasonal and trading day adjustments, this could differ very slightly from the final numbers reported by Auto Trader or Ward’s Auto later this afternoon. 17.312mm SAAR is not a weak number, especially considering the terrible results from Ford (-5.9% YoY), GM (-18.0% YoY) and Toyota (-9.6% YoY), which collectively make up about half of US market share.

060116 Auto SAAR 2

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