He’s only been the president-elect for a week, but Donald Trump can already claim victory in terms of market sentiment. After a record 54 weeks where AAII’s weekly bullish sentiment reading was below 40%, this week’s reading, which was the first survey to be fully conducted after the election, surged above 40% for the first time since October 2015. After increasing from 23.6% to 38.9% in last week’s survey, which straddled the election, this week saw another 7.8 percentage point increase to 46.7%. The last time bullish sentiment was this high was all the way back in February 2015! Since the bull market began in 2009, there have only been two other periods where bullish sentiment saw a larger two week increase than the last two weeks.
As one might expect given the increase in bullish sentiment, bearish sentiment declined this week, falling from 29.3% down to 26.6%. The bulk of the new bulls, however, came from the neutral camp which shrunk five percentage points down to 26.8%. As shown in the chart below, there haven’t been this few ‘undecideds’ on the market in two years (November 2014). The general consensus heading into the election was that a Trump Presidency would bring with it a big increase in market uncertainty, but for individual investors, things apparently haven’t been this certain in quite some time.