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For the second month in a row, the monthly private payrolls report from ADP exceeded estimates, coming in above 250K.  February’s print came in just shy of 300K at 298.4K, and it was well above the consensus print of 188K.  This was the highest monthly print since April 2014, the third highest print of the expansion, and the second best two-month reading (559.5k) in the history of the survey (going back to 2007).  No matter how you slice it, this indicator was strong.


As mentioned above, this month’s ADP report was the second straight better than expected print, and over the last three months, the actual reported number has exceeded expectations by an average of 55.7K.  As shown in the chart below, the three month average spread between the actual and estimated reading hasn’t been this positive since August 2012.

ADP Act vs estimates

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