You’ve likely seen Bespoke’s premium research before, but we continue to publish unique and timely analysis in reports like our Morning Lineup, BIG Tips, Sector Snapshot, Bespoke Baskets, Closer, and more.
Additionally, this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is our Quarterly Macro Summary — a multi-page powerpoint-style PDF that is easily digestible but super informative. You can see Bespoke’s current thoughts on global markets and the economy in this report.
Gain access by simply starting a two-week trial to any of the three Bespoke membership levels listed below. You can view our membership options here.
Join Bespoke Newsletter (Weekly Bespoke Report + COTD; Lowest price)
Join Bespoke Premium (Newsletter research + Morning Lineup, BIG Tips, and more)
Join Bespoke Institutional (Access to everything!)
As earnings season winds down, the market posted another positive week to begin the month of November. Below is a look at a handful of charts published this week that we thought were interesting or noteworthy. Receive charts and analysis like this in your inbox daily by signing up for a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
The S&P 500 finished October with a 5%+ gain. Below we show how the S&P has historically done in the month after 5%+ monthly gains:
This week, the Federal Reserve announced the long-awaited taper. Since Powell became Fed chair, there has been a pattern of posting solid intraday gains prior to the 2 PM announcement but then trading sharply lower during the Fed press conference into the 4 PM close. As shown below, the opposite trend emerged when the taper was announced on Wednesday.
The 7-day average of US air passenger traffic was 1.94 million yesterday. Although this is a 124% y/y increase, this level still represents a 23% decline on a 2-year basis. Additionally, this constitutes a week over week decline.
We saw yet another week of declines in initial jobless claims. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims are now only slightly above March 2020 levels. This comes in a week that normally sees claims increase. As shown below, non-seasonally adjusted claims have been falling at a time of year when they usually start to increase, indicating strength in the labor market.
After trading in a sideways range for the last nine months, small-caps finally broke out above resistance this week, which could clear the way for another leg higher.
In terms of annual performance, the S&P 500 is on pace for a three year streak of 15%+ price gains. This current streak is second only to the 1990’s, in which 5 consecutive years saw gains of 15%+. This would be only the second time that a streak of this length has been achieved since 1929!