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As earnings season winds down, the market posted another positive week to begin the month of November. Below is a look at a handful of charts published this week that we thought were interesting or noteworthy. Receive charts and analysis like this in your inbox daily by signing up for a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
The S&P 500 finished October with a 5%+ gain. Below we show how the S&P has historically done in the month after 5%+ monthly gains:
This week, the Federal Reserve announced the long-awaited taper. Since Powell became Fed chair, there has been a pattern of posting solid intraday gains prior to the 2 PM announcement but then trading sharply lower during the Fed press conference into the 4 PM close. As shown below, the opposite trend emerged when the taper was announced on Wednesday.
The 7-day average of US air passenger traffic was 1.94 million yesterday. Although this is a 124% y/y increase, this level still represents a 23% decline on a 2-year basis. Additionally, this constitutes a week over week decline.
We saw yet another week of declines in initial jobless claims. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims are now only slightly above March 2020 levels. This comes in a week that normally sees claims increase. As shown below, non-seasonally adjusted claims have been falling at a time of year when they usually start to increase, indicating strength in the labor market.
After trading in a sideways range for the last nine months, small-caps finally broke out above resistance this week, which could clear the way for another leg higher.
In terms of annual performance, the S&P 500 is on pace for a three year streak of 15%+ price gains. This current streak is second only to the 1990’s, in which 5 consecutive years saw gains of 15%+. This would be only the second time that a streak of this length has been achieved since 1929!
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