As of mid-day, the S&P 500 was up 5% month-to-date. Below is a look at the best starts to June through seven trading days for the S&P since the index’s inception in 1928. As shown, this ranks as the fifth best start to June on record, and it’s the S&P 500’s best start to June since 1974 when it was up 5.73% through the month’s first seven trading days.
As far as what to expect going forward based on historical seasonality, in the week following all 3%+ starts to June through seven trading days, the S&P has averaged a decline of 0.66% over the next week. And while the index has averaged a gain of 0.99% for the remainder of June following 3%+ gains through seven trading days, the median rest-of-month change is actually negative at -0.03%. This is due to the outlier gain of 16.3% for the remainder of June 1938 after a gain of 7.23% over that month’s first seven trading days.
While we’ve seen the 5th best start to June on record, this is also the best start to any month through seven trading days since October 2011 when the S&P rallied 5.67%. Below we show all 4%+ starts to a month through seven trading days since 1980. The most notable takeaway from this data in our view is that the last nine times we’ve seen the S&P gain 4%+ in a month’s first seven trading days, the index has been up over the next week 8 out of 9 times, and it has been up 9 out of 9 times for the remainder of the month. To access our most actionable market research, start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional.