Bespoke’s “Countdown to Liftoff” indicator is our estimate of the time (in months) until a Fed policy rate hike. Our calculation uses Fed Funds futures prices and constant assumptions about the size of the hike to calculate the hike date.
As shown in the chart at left below, our “Countdown to Liftoff” continues to trend lower, and it’s now at 7 months — pointing to an October rate hike. As long as the October estimate holds, our Liftoff indicator will continue to tick lower as we get closer and closer to that date. Eventually it’s headed to zero, and then — lift off.