Get Bespoke’s 2017 Outlook Report with a 30-day free trial to Bespoke’s premium research! Click here to learn more.
While the US stock market (S&P 500) is up 10% year-to-date heading into today’s trading, the Russian stock market is now up 5x more on the year at +51.8%. Check out the year-to-date performance chart of the two countries below. As shown, Russia has exploded higher since Trump was elected, but even heading into the election, the country was significantly outperforming the US.
Below is a look at our trading range screen for the 30 largest country ETFs traded on US exchanges. For each ETF, the dot represents where it’s currently trading within its normal range, while the tail end represents where it was trading one week ago. The black vertical “N” line represents each ETF’s 50-day moving average, and moves into the red or green zones are considered overbought or oversold.
If you’re a US investor buying these country ETFs looking to gain international exposure, you’ve got to be aware that movements in the US dollar will make it so that you’re not getting the same performance as you’d get if you were say a domestic German investor buying the German stock index. If the US dollar gains against the euro while you own the Germany ETF (EWG), it’s going to hurt your EWG performance.
The reason we’re bringing up the dollar’s impact on these ETFs is because the dollar has surged since Trump was elected, and as a result, the average performance of these 30 country ETFs since the close on Election Day is actually a decline of 2.6%. As shown, while Russia (RSX) is up 13.5%, the next best performing country ETFs since Election Day are Canada (EWC) at +4.6%, Italy (EWI) at +5.96%, and the US (SPY) at +5.5%. Most country ETFs are either flat or down, however, and at this point, only a handful remain in “overbought” territory. Countries like Brazil (EWZ), China (ASHR), and Hong Kong (EWH) are now oversold.