table-1Nissan reported strong sales numbers ahead of the rest of the US auto industry this morning, but as we noted earlier on Twitter, Nissan hasn’t been a good indicator of the overall direction for the industry.  Ford’s report brought the industry sales pace down to a bit less than 17.5mm.  That would be a miss versus analyst estimates and a very small decline versus last month’s numbers.  Of course, it’s still early; only two manufacturers representing 26% of the industry’s volumes have reported.  We’ll be updating this post throughout the day as more numbers are announced by other auto OEMs.

Update 1 10:06 AM: Since Ford’s report, we got strong numbers from GM and Mazda and a weak month from Fiat-Chrysler. That brings the total tracking rate for the industry to 17.385mm with almost 60% of the industry reported. The last large manufacturer still to report is Toyota, but the smaller OEMs can also make a big impact in the afternoon so it’s possible total sales won’t miss still.

Update 2 11:07 AM: We still haven’t heard from Toyota but Audi and VW did report in the middle of the morning, bringing the total tracked industry sales pace to 17.50mm SAAR by our count. Honda also delivered modest YoY growth in units of about 2.3%. With 70% of the industry now reported, it’s getting less likely that the last third of reporting volume can get the total run-rate above the 17.75mm estimated by analysts.

Update 3 11:26 AM: With results in from Toyota, we have now received February sales numbers from a bit more than 80% of the market. As shown below, with the 7.2% YoY NSA decline Toyota delivered for the month (versus expectations of a 4.8% decline) we are tracking 17.37mm SAAR sales pace on the month.If that number holds, it will be the weakest month of sales since August of 2016.

Update 4 1:48 PM: We now have reports from every significant OEM except for Hyundai and with 95% of the market reported auto sales will miss in February. Despite an incredible 39% YoY spike Mitsubishi sales, weak results from BMW and KIA joined Toyota, Ford, and Fiat-Chrysler in pushing down auto sales. As shown in the bottom chart below, the sales pace has dropped sharply to start 2017 after finishing 2016 on a very high note.

Final Update 3:12 PM: Hyundai reported flat sales YoY taking our final tracking numbers to 17.423mm SAAR with 99.2% of the industry reported. Wards Auto, which conducts their own tracking with a method slightly different from ours, reported a 17.47mm SAAR sales pace based on the numbers reported today by manufacturers. Either way, sales missed solidly and have now declined for 2 months in a row while falling to the lowest level since last August.



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