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Update 1 2:03 PM: We’ve updated our tracker with early afternoon reports from Porsche, Subaru, Kia, and Mitsubishi, as well as adding a couple of reporting OEMs we had missed this morning and the results are not positive for our tracker. With 95% of the market reported (only Mercedes and BMW missing as of this writing), we tally an auto sales pace of 16.55mm SAAR, even worse than the miss indicated in our original post this morning. 16.55mm SAAR would be above March’s weak 16.52mm SAAR print (final BEA numbers), but below every other month since February of 2015. Hyundai, Mazda, and Kia, which had held up well in recent months as larger manufacturers lagged, delivered very weak numbers relative to the industry as a whole.

With the major auto original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reported as of this writing, 81.1% of US auto sales in May have been announced. Based on what’s out currently, auto sales are highly likely to miss again in the month of May, which would be the 4th consecutive miss. Analysts were expecting a sales pace of 16.9mm SAAR, but reports from Ford, GM, and Fiat-Chrysler put our running tracker of sales well below that level. Currently, as of VW’s report we are tracking a sales pace of about 16.64mm SAAR. That figure could improve as smaller manufacturers report this afternoon but it’s not likely to clear the hurdle of analysts’ estimates based on how many OEMs have reported so far.

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