We’re tracking auto sales releases throughout the day as they come in again this month. August sales are expected to come in at 17.2mm SAAR, versus a surprise beat of 17.77mm SAAR last month. Throughout the day, we’ll be processing non-seasonally adjusted reports from each company into a tracker of what the final, seasonally-adjusted number should look like. Thus far, the biggest two US auto makers (Ford and GM) have reported very disappointing numbers. It’s worth pointing out that the same rocky start happened last month, with sales tracking a miss after the first two reported. Strong numbers from foreign OEMs helped push up the total tracker later in the day, but the early reports for August have placed our tracker in a much deeper hole early. Stay tuned for updates throughout the trading day. We’ll be updating the chart below as each automaker releases their figures.
Update 1 9:52 AM: Fiat-Chrysler (+3% YoY) and Nissan (-6.5% YoY) have both reported sales and the results are broadly in-line with Ford and GM. With a bit over half of US market share reported, sales look set to come in below the 17mm SAAR level, even if there are relatively strong reports from other US auto market players later in the day.
Update 2 10:37 AM: Sales reports from Audi (+2.5% YoY), Honda (-3.8%), and Mazda (-12.8%) have crossed the tape, with relatively little impact on our tracker for SAAR rate in the month of August. So far, of the reported OEMs, only Audi has managed to post a truly solid month of sales, with either declines or misses from the rest of the pack. With about two-thirds of market share reported, the odds of a beat on auto sales in the month of August look very low indeed.
Update 3 11:03 AM: Volkswagen (-9.1% YoY) and Toyota (-5% YoY) have now reported August sales and that brings the total reported share of the market up to 82%. As shown, our tracker is still sitting around 16.8mm SAAR, well below estimates of 17.2mm SAAR. If the current level around 16.81mm SAAR is the number for August, it will be the third-worst report of the year and mark the 9th month in a row auto sales were unable to make a new high. Hyundai, Subaru, and Kia are the last major manufacturers to report, collectively about 12% of market share; all three outperformed in July in terms of total unit sales, but it’s a big ask for them to push the needle much higher given the weak reports from far larger OEMs so far today.
Update 4 14:53 PM: While most of the auto market suffered badly in August, Subaru delivered 14.7% YoY sales gains and pushed our tracker back up towards 16.9mm SAAR from the 16.76mm SAAR tracking after disappointing reports from Mercedes, BMW, and KIA. This will be our final update until Wards and Auto Trader release their summary estimates later tonight. With almost 94% of market share reported, we expect SAAR of 16.88mm to be announced for August auto sales.