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Update 2 11:49 AM:┬áStrong sales growth from Volkswagen (rebounding off post-diesel scandal market share lows) and Subaru (gaining share in leaps and bounds from a relatively low starting point, but making new highs) have helped push our tracker for industry sales pace in June back above estimates. Currently we are tracking a very small beat despite enormous sales declines from the largest US auto makers. Fiat-Chrysler’s cringe-worthy declines actually drove our sales tracker below estimates at one point, and Toyota is the only major to report YoY volume growth. Generally speaking, smaller car companies have been able to do a better job growing sales than the large US brands.

Update 1 9:34 AM: While the industry was looking pretty strong prior to 9:15, Ford, Mazda, and GM reports around that time put an end to the extremely strong versus expectations tracking data we discuss below. As shown in the table at right, all three companies reported large NSA sales declines YoY, and had a combined negative impact of nearly 700,000 SAAR on our tracker. With 66% of the industry now reported, instead of strong gains that were indicated by tracking this morning, it’s now possible that the industry will miss estimates entirely! We will continue to update our tracker as new sales data is released from manufacturers throughout the day.

Auto sales have strung up a series of brutal defeats recently as sales pace has sagged to the mid-16mm SAAR range from over 18mm SAAR at the recent peak. That includes a string of misses in recent months that have seen analysts drastically over-estimate sales figures for the industry. .In June, however, we’re getting the opposite. As of this writing, with about one-third of the industry reported, auto sales are tracking a beat versus expectations per our seasonal and trading day adjustment of raw manufacturer sales figures. Honda, Toyota, and Nissan have all bested analyst estimates, and have together put the industry on pace to handily beat the expected 16.52mm SAAR sales pace that analysts had forecast for the month. We’ll continue to update this post throughout the day as other manufacturer sales figures are released.

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