Although today’s read on initial jobless claims showed a slight uptick from last week, at a level of 270K it still managed to come in below expectations (272K). On top of that, even though it was not a major move, it is important to remember that claims remain at extraordinarily low levels.
Even with this week’s slight increase in claims, the four-week moving average saw a pretty sizable decline, falling from 274.75K down to 268.25K. At this level, the four-week moving average is now less than 2K from a new expansion low. Barring any revisions to this week’s report, any reading below 274K next week will push the four -week moving average below its recent low of 266.5K from 5/15.
Once again this week, the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) reading in jobless claims was the most impressive of them all. In the last week, NSA claims dropped from 230.2K down to 225.1K. For the current week of the year, this is the lowest reading since the Summer of 1969- 46 years ago!