Today’s payrolls report from ADP provided some positive news on the employment front as private payrolls for the month of November increased more than expected.  While economists were forecasting the November report to come in at a level of 190K, the actual level was 27K higher at 217K and the third highest monthly reading this year.

If it seems like the ADP report has been ‘around 200K’ practically every month recently, that’s because it pretty much has.  In the last two years, the highest monthly print for the ADP report was 296.5K while the lowest monthly print was 156.7K.  In other words, each of the last 24 monthly reports has been in a range of 140K,  As the lower chart illustrates, the two-year range for the ADP report is now at its narrowest range in the history of the report, although we find little reason to quibble with a lack of volatility in the report as it hovers right around +200K.

ADP Range

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