If there was a mercy rule in the financial markets, we may have already called it a year for crude oil. With a decline of 20% on the year and declines in each of the last five weeks as well as eight of the last ten, 2017 just hasn’t been crude oil’s year. Compared to prior years, crude oil is on pace for its worst first half in 20 years (1997), and if we get a decline like last week again, crude oil could conceivably see its worst first half since 1991!
Looking at crude’s chart over the last year, it closed out last week right below the lower end of its down-trending range that has been in place since its early-year highs. The fact that it couldn’t bounce at this level is concerning if you are a bull. It still remains extended to the downside, though, so you can’t rule out a short-term bounce from these levels.