Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 4/19/24

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“The best kept secret in the investing world: Almost nothing turns out as expected.” – Harry Browne

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

The S&P 500 has formed a downtrend that is clear as day over the last three weeks, as shown in the 15-day intraday chart of the index below:

As we noted in last night’s Closer, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has opened higher and then closed down from that opening level for four straight trading days.  This is a reversal from the intraday strength that we generally saw during the slow-and-steady rally seen from last October through March.

This morning, at least, it looks like SPY is set to open lower, and bulls will be looking for that gap down to be bought.

We discussed the Israel/Iran conflict in more detail in this morning’s Commentary, but notably, oil prices have pulled back significantly after an initial spike on news that Israel was indeed retaliating against Iran last night.  Oil popped 4% on the news last night, but it’s down 5% from those levels and now trading lower on the day.  You can see this action in the candlestick chart of oil below.  For now, oil’s 50-day moving average has still not been breached.

For much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

 

The Closer – More Red Candles, Volatile on Earnings, Real Yields – 4/18/24

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the four straight sessions of the S&P 500 selling off intraday (page 1) followed by a look at Q1’s most volatile stocks on earnings (page 2).  Next, we dive into stock and bond performance based on real yield changes and levels (page 3).  We then turn to macro data including looks at the existing home sales figures (page 4), leading indicators (page 5), and then close out with a rundown of the 5 year TIPS auction (page 6).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season.  We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management.  These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results.  We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q1 2024 and Q4 2023 earnings reporting periods.

Q1 2024 Recaps:

D.R. Horton : Q2 2024


CSX: Q1 2024


Las Vegas Sands: Q1 2024


United Airlines: Q1 2024


ASML: Q1 2024


Big Banks (JPM, C, GS, BAC, MS): Q1 2024


Delta Air Lines: Q1 2024


Lamb Weston: Q3 2024


Conagra Brands: Q3 2024

RH: Q4 2023

FedEx: Q3 2024

Nike: Q3 2024

Lululemon: Q4 2023

General Mills: Q3 2024

Q4 2023 Recaps:

Williams Sonoma: Q4 2023
Nordstrom: Q4 2023
AeroVironment: Q3 2024
Aaron’s: Q4 2023
NVIDIA: Q4 2024
Walmart: Q4 2024
Home Depot: Q4 2023
Deere: Q4 2023
Generac: Q4 2023
Airbnb: Q4 2023
AutoNation: Q4 2023
Restaurant Brands International: Q4 2023
Shopify: Q4 2023
Cloudflare: Q4 2023
Hershey: Q4 2023
Disney: Q1 2024
Arm: Q3 2024
Uber: Q4 2023
Chipotle: Q4 2023
Spotify: Q4 2023
Simon Property: Q4 2023
Palantir: Q4 2023
Caterpillar: Q4 2023
McDonald’s: Q4 2023
Apple: Q1 2024
Amazon: Q4 2023
Meta Platforms: Q4 2023
Honeywell: Q4 2023
Old Dominion Freight: Q4 2023
Starbucks: Q1 2024
Microsoft: Q2 2024
United Parcel Service: Q4 2023
Alphabet: Q4 2023
Whirlpool: Q4 2023
Super Micro Computer: Q2 2024
Norfolk Southern: Q4 2023
American Express: Q4 2023
IBM: Q4 2023
Tesla: Q4 2023
ASML: Q2 2024
Texas Instruments: Q4 2023
Netflix: Q4 2023
RTX: Q4 2023
3M: Q4 2023
General Electric: Q4 2023
Schlumberger: Q4 2023
PPG Industries: Q4 2023
Taiwan Semiconductor: Q4 2023
H.B. Fuller: Q4 2023
Fastenal: Q4 2023
Big Banks (JPM, C, BAC, GS): Q4 2023
Delta Air Lines: Q4 2024
Constellation Brands: Q3 2024
Conagra Brands: Q2 2024
Lamb Weston: Q2 2024
Walgreens: Q1 2024
FedEx: Q2 2024
Costco: Q1 2024
Brown-Forman: Q2 2024
SentinelOne: Q3 2024

 

 

Recaps published during Q1 2024 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/18/24

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Futures are trading slightly higher this morning, but that’s nothing new as we’ve seen a number of days in the last week or two start higher only to roll over and sell-off into the close.  We cover the recent intraday selling on page four of this morning’s report.

At the end of March, most US equity index ETFs were trading in overbought territory, but now it’s the opposite as shown in the snapshot from our Trend Analyzer below.  Small-caps and the Dow are at the most extreme oversold levels.

The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that are overbought versus oversold has completely flipped as well, with 46% of the index now oversold compared to just 6% that remain overbought.

For much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

Fixed Income Weekly — 4/17/24

Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class?  Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week.  We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week.  We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea.  We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.

Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates.  You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes for the next two weeks!

Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/17/24 – Quiet But Positive

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Houston, we’ve had a problem here.” – Jack Swigert, Apollo 13 Astronaut

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

There’s not a lot of news to speak of this morning, but that isn’t stopping futures from drifting higher. Treasury yields, crude oil, and gold are all little changed with a negative bias.  Mortgage applications increased in the latest week even after yields surged, but other than that, the economic calendar is empty for the rest of the day.

54 years ago today, Americans were glued to their TVs anxiously watching as Apollo 13 splashed down in the Pacific Ocean after a troubled six-day mission in space. While the world breathed a sigh of relief as Apollo 13 returned safely from orbit and down to Earth, investors today are nervously watching the market as it comes back down to earth.  After trading at overbought levels for months, major indices around the world are pulling back and falling from overbought levels and back below their 50-day moving averages.  Yesterday, it was the STOXX 600’s turn as the index closed below its 50-DMM for the first time since November 14th.

Yesterday’s decline ended the longest streak of closes above the 50-DMA since June 2017 and just the 11th streak that lasted more than 100 days. The longest of those streaks ended in April 1997 at 160 trading days and also occurred within a year of the second longest streak on record (142 trading days ending on 6/7/1996).

So, when these streaks come to an end, is it a sign of a market calamity on the way?  Not necessarily.  For more details check out today’s Morning Lineup!

Read today’s entire Morning Lineup.

For more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/16/24 – Hope is a Four Letter Word

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Don’t hope. Hope is for people who aren’t prepared.” – Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Futures are higher this morning as positive earnings results lift the mood of investors even as interest rates are higher.  Housing Starts and Building permits were just released, and both reports came in lower than expected. Housing Starts were a big miss coming in at 1.321 million compared to forecasts for 1.485.  Building Permits were also weaker at 1.458 million versus consensus forecasts for 1.510 million. These reports should have been friendly to rates, but so far there has been very little movement in the 10-year yield.  Besides these two reports, the only other items on the calendar are Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15.  We’ll also be hearing from Fed Chair Powel at 1:15 Eastern.

After the last two trading days, and all of April for that matter, there are probably a lot of overexposed traders and investors hoping for an up day or two. We don’t know where the market will go from here in the short term, but at this point, the S&P 500 is only down 3.66% from its closing all-time high at the end of March.  That’s not even close to what most people would call a correction, let alone a pullback.  While the current decline is the first of that magnitude since late last year, since 1953 there have been 455 declines of 3% or more on a closing basis without a 3% rally in between. That works out to one about every two months. In other words, the fact that we hadn’t had a pullback of 3% in over five months was more unusual than the fact that the S&P 500 is now down over 3% from its high.  In fact, since 1953, there have only been ten other periods where the S&P 500 went longer than the just-ended streak without falling 3% from a local closing high.

Looking at the four major US indices across the market cap spectrum, the Russell 2000 is the only one not up YTD, although it was in the black just a week ago.  What’s also notable is that a week ago all four indices were above their 50-day moving averages (DMA) and two (MDY and SPY) were overbought.  As of yesterday’s close, all four indices are not below their 50-DMA, and two (QQQ and IWM) are oversold. Change tends to happen fast in the markets.

The fact that all four of the indices shown above closed below their 50-DMA yesterday was notable because it was the first time since November 2nd that all four of them closed below their 50-DMAs. Since 1990, that streak was on the extreme side, but it wasn’t unheard of as eleven streaks were longer and another six lasted longer than 100 trading days. The most recent ended in August of last year (106 trading days), and the longest was 262 trading days ending in January 1996.

Read today’s entire Morning Lineup.

For more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

The Triple Play Report — 4/15/24

An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance.  You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term.  We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook.  A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.

Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts.  Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 14 new stocks.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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Cintas (CTAS), a workplace health and safety company, is an example of a company that reported an earnings triple play recently.

CTAS has been trending up for quite some time now and has traded above its 50 and 200-DMA consistently since last October.

Looking at the snapshot below from our Earnings Explorer, in its last 20 earnings reports, or five years of earnings, CTAS has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates 100% of the time. Its triple play on March 27th is just the company’s fourth over this stretch, however, which resulted in a one-day gain of 8.25%. Tallying five straight years of earnings beats is no easy task, especially when those five years include a global pandemic. Ultimately, CTAS was able to succeed through the pandemic as revenue for First Aid and Safety Services surged despite declines in Uniform Rental and Facility Services as many businesses suffered.

Fast forward to today, CTAS’s health and safety products remain in high demand in a post-pandemic world. Uniform Rental and Facility Services remains the core of CTAS’s business with steady growth while First Aid and Safety Services grew double-digits versus the prior year due to strong demand and higher margin products, like AED rentals, in that category. This quarter also highlighted the SmartTruck technology to aid efforts in optimizing its delivery and service routes to minimize costs and improve speed. Six Sigma was also mentioned as a benefit for improving manufacturing processes by eliminating defects and guaranteeing quality. You can read more about CTAS and the 13 other triple plays in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.

Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/15/24 – Tax Day

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“All taxes discourage something. Why not discourage bad things like pollution rather than good things like working?” – Lawrence Summers

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

The market is breathing a sigh of relief after Iran’s much-anticipated attack on Israel was well enough choreographed that it had minimal damage on Israel.  While futures are higher, they’re still well below where they were as of the close on Thursday, so not all of the geopolitical risk has been priced out of the market. Going forward, earnings and the economy will take center stage as it’s a busy week ahead on both fronts.  Starting things off this morning, Goldman Sachs (GS) reported better-than-expected EPS and revenues and the stock is trading up over 4%. Regarding the economy, there’s a busy calendar with Retail Sales and Empire Manufacturing at 8:30 followed by Business Inventories and Homebuilder Sentiment at 10 AM.

Happy Tax Day.  If you haven’t already filed your taxes for 2023, you’re starting to run out of time.  Based on the performance of stocks so far in April, it seems like people who owed money have been raising cash in the stock market as the S&P 500 is down 2.5%, the Nasdaq is down 1.3%, and the Russell 2000 is down 5.7%.  While you could make a good argument that the weakness is tax-related, a counter to that argument would be that European stocks have also been weak to kick off the quarter, but April 15th isn’t a tax deadline on the other side of the Atlantic.

Whether it’s tax-related or not, there is some historical precedent for April to get off to a weak start, especially in years when the first quarter was positive.  The chart below shows the intraday performance of the S&P 500 during April broken out by how the index performed YTD heading into the month.  In the 28 years when the S&P 500 was up YTD heading into April, its average MTD performance heading into the start of trading on the 15th was a gain of just 0.2% with positive returns just 57% of the time.  That compares to an average rally of 1.4% and gains 69% of the time in the years when the S&P 500 was down YTD heading into the month.  Not only is the S&P 500’s average performance in the first half of April weaker in years when it was up YTD through the end of Q1, but in the seven years since 1983 when it was up 10%+ in the first quarter, the average MTD performance through the close on 4/14 was a decline of 0.2%.

On a positive note, while the first two weeks of April have historically been weaker in years when the S&P 500 was up in Q1 versus down, the rest of April has been more positive. In the 28 years when the S&P 500 was positive in Q1, April’s average performance from the close on 4/14 through month end was +1.4% compared to an average gain of 0.7% for all other years.

Read today’s entire Morning Lineup.

For more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

Bespoke’s Brunch Reads – 4/14/24

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium with a 30-day trial!

On This Day in History:

Two Tragedies: April 14th has been a particularly eventful day in history. In 1865, President Abraham Lincoln was assassinated by John Wilkes Booth, a well-known actor and Confederate sympathizer, at Ford’s Theater in Washington, DC. During a performance of the play “Our American Cousin,” Booth entered the presidential box and fatally shot Lincoln in the back of the head just days after the surrender of Confederate General Robert E. Lee. This was the first of what have now been four assassinations of a US president.

Forty-seven years later, in 1912, at 11:40 PM on April 14th, the Titanic struck an iceberg that infamously sank the ship. Before the departure of its maiden voyage, the Titanic was deemed unsinkable due to its advanced safety features. In the frigid North Atlantic Ocean, the collision resulted in the deaths of over 1,500 passengers and crew with most succumbing to hypothermia rather than drowning.

What a coincidence that two such monumental and history-altering events can be traced to a single night less than 50 years apart.

Inflation

New Questions on How a Key Agency Shared Inflation Data (NYT)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is facing scrutiny after revelations that more detailed inflation data was shared with Wall Street “super users” than was previously admitted. An economist at the BLS, in regular contact with finance industry analysts, shared insights about inflation figures, particularly changes in methodology that could affect market-sensitive predictions. This sharing included emails to analysts of major investment banks and hedge funds, detailing technical aspects of inflation data construction. While no early data release was involved, the sharing of methodological insights not yet made public could have provided these analysts with a competitive edge in forecasting. [Link]

The US Postal Service wants to hike stamp prices again in July. Here’s how much you’ll pay (CNN Business)
The US Postal Service is planning another price increase for First-Class “Forever” stamps, proposing to raise the cost from $0.68 to $0.73. The plan seeks to modernize and make USPS more competitive despite its ongoing financial struggles, with projected losses of $6.3 billion in 2024. Since 2019, the price of stamps has increased 36%. Additional changes would see domestic postcard rates rise from $0.53 to $0.56 and international postcard rates increase from $1.55 to $1.65. [Link]

AI & Technology

How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I. (NYT)
In late 2021, OpenAI faced a data shortage from training its AI models and devised a solution by creating a speech recognition tool, Whisper, to transcribe YouTube videos to textual data. Although potentially breaching YouTube’s rules, this fueled the development of GPT-4, one of the world’s most advanced AI models. To keep pace with AI growth and the fierce competition among the world’s largest companies, it’s interesting to note their willingness to explore new methods of data collection, even if they infringe on copyrights. [Link]

The Worst Part of a Wall Street Career May Be Coming to an End (NYT)
For Wall Street, Generative AI could potentially reduce the need for human analysts in investment banking. AI programs which are being integrated into major banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase can perform tasks like quickly and efficiently assembling PowerPoint presentations and analyzing financial data. By automating routine tasks traditionally performed by analysts, banks are discussing the possibility of reducing junior analyst hires by up to two-thirds. Investment banking is traditionally reliant on the labor-intensive work of young analysts, but AI could redefine career paths in finance, shifting the focus from grueling entry-level work to more strategic and creative roles. [Link]

AI & Technology

India’s electric rickshaws are leaving EVs in the dust (Rest of World)
In Sonipat, India, a factory is transforming the EV landscape by producing 5,000 three-wheeler EVs, or e-rickshaws, each month for YC Electric, the country’s second-largest manufacturer. These e-rickshaws are part of an EV revolution in India, with sales soaring as the country embraces cleaner transportation alternatives. Despite the lack of major brand recognition compared to four-wheeler and two-wheeler EVs, these e-rickshaws are making significant inroads, driven by local manufacturing and government incentives. The Sonipat plant is a joint venture with Chinese partners providing technology and training. [Link]

E&E News: Geoengineering test launched with salt flecks and secrecy (Politico Pro)
The first outdoor experiment in the US to combat global warming by attempting to increase cloud cover was launched discreetly from a decommissioned aircraft carrier in San Francisco Bay. The test tried to reflect sunlight away from Earth by dispersing microscopic salt particles into the air as part of solar radiation modification research. The experiment does raise questions about the development of climate intervention technologies due to its potential unforeseen impacts on ecosystems and communities. [Link]

Environmental

‘Shortcuts Everywhere’: How Boeing Favored Speed Over Quality (DNyuz)
Recent incidents with Boeing’s 737 Max planes, including malfunctions and a panel blowout, have raised concerns about the aircraft’s production quality. Despite efforts to improve after the fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019, reports and interviews suggest ongoing issues with Boeing’s quality control, including pressure on employees to meet production deadlines, a decline in workforce experience, and a weakened inspection process. The FAA’s ongoing audit and Boeing’s steps toward addressing quality-control issues indicate a critical period for the company as it seeks to regain its reputation and ensure the safety of its aircraft. [Link]
America’s Best Idea, Now Accessible by EV (Heatmap News)

The expansion of EV charging infrastructure is transforming travel to remote national parks across the United States. Previously, accessing these parks with an EV involved navigating sparse and sometimes unreliable charging options, which could turn such trips into logistical challenges. Now, efforts by companies like Tesla to install fast-charging stations near these parks are making it increasingly feasible to explore America’s natural wonders without the carbon footprint associated with traditional vehicles. Not only will this support demand for EV use but it also aligns with conservation goals in the country’s national parks. [Link]

Why Is It So Hard to Build an Airport? (Construction Physics)
The transformation of air travel, particularly with the advent of jet airliners, necessitated the expansion and modernization of airports, a task complicated primarily by the large environmental impact, including noise pollution that affects nearby residents, and the large land requirements that can encroach on valuable ecological areas or necessitate the relocation of existing communities. The historical resistance to airport construction and expansion also reflects broader societal concerns about the pace of technological progress. The solutions for this issue are broad, including quieter turbofan engines, improvements in air traffic control, and more efficient use of existing airport capacities. [Link]

Environmental

Invaders from underground are coming in cicada-geddon. It’s the biggest bug emergence in centuries (AP News)
Trillions of periodical cicadas, unique for their 13 or 17-year emergence cycle, are set to swarm parts of the United States in an event dubbed “cicada-geddon.” This rare occurrence, not seen in such numbers since the early 1800s, will see the insects emerging from the ground to mate and lay eggs before dying. Collectively, their “song” can reach up to 110 decibels, comparable to jet engines. This year’s double emergence of two broods, last seen together in 1803, promises an unparalleled display across multiple states. [Link]

In Texas, ex-oil and gas workers champion geothermal energy as a replacement for fossil-fueled power plants (The Texas Tribune)
In 2021, Sage Geosystems, a startup led by former Shell employees, targeted a deserted well in Texas for a geothermal energy project, aiming to generate power from the Earth’s heat. The technique used mirrors fracking, involving deep drilling and water injection to crack rocks and release pressurized water, spinning turbines to produce electricity. Geothermal energy, unlike solar and wind, offers a continuous power source, independent of weather conditions. These projects embody the transition of oil and gas expertise to renewable energy sources, aiming to expand geothermal capacity with the support of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and potentially transform energy production on a global scale. [Link]  

Sports

Bill Murray’s Son Designed UConn’s Offense. It’s No Joke. (WSJ)
UConn dominated March Madness thanks to the team’s dynamic offense, which is largely credited to assistant coach Luke Murray, son of comedy legend Bill Murray. Perhaps one of the most shocking stats was the team’s 30-0 scoring run against Illinois in the Elite Eight. The closest game UConn played in the tournament leading up to its championship matchup against Purdue, which the Huskies still won by 15, was still a 14-point margin against Alabama in the Final Four with an average margin of 23 points throughout the tournament. The team’s total point differential of +140 is the greatest in tournament history and they join UCLA from the 1960s as the only teams to win back-to-back championships by 15+ points. To make a long story short, that’s a lot of scoring. The key to Murray’s success lies in observation, taking ideas from basketball worldwide. It has proven to be effective enough to make UConn the most efficient offense in the nation after being ranked 27th in the category before Murray’s hiring in 2020. [Link]

TV Ratings: Men’s NCAA Final Falls Short of Women’s Title Game for First Time (The Hollywood Reporter)
While UConn might’ve dominated on the men’s side of March Madness, attracting a slight increase in viewership from last year, it was the women who shined this year. In fact, the men’s final attracted fewer viewers than the women’s championship for the first time, with the women’s final between South Carolina and Iowa garnering a record 18.87 million viewers. Of course, all eyes were on Iowa’s Caitlin Clark against Dawn Staley’s undefeated South Carolina team who ultimately thanked Clark’s contributions to the women’s game after defeating Iowa. Notably, that championship game also attracted more eyes than any basketball game, including NBA games, in the last five years! [Link]

Steve Cohen says a 4-day work week is coming in part because of AI (CNBC)
Steve Cohen, billionaire hedge fund manager and owner of the New York Mets, says that the four-day workweek will eventually become a reality as AI becomes more prevalent and productivity levels on Fridays are already low. Assuming the shortened week is coming as Cohen expects, that means people will have more leisure time and lead to more golf rounds and higher levels of interest in the sport. The sport already saw a surge in interest during the pandemic, so it is obvious that interest is there. The prospect of a four-day workweek was enough evidence for Cohen to invest in the golf startup league TGL as well as a possible future investment in the PGA Tour. [Link]

Investments

Costco selling as much as $200 million in gold bars monthly, Wells Fargo estimates (CNBC)
Gold sales at Costco started in late summer of 2023 and have quickly gained momentum, evidenced by rapid online sell-outs and an increasing volume of related Reddit discussions. The retailer sells one-ounce, nearly pure 24-karat gold bars, roughly 2% above the spot price, making them an attractive investment amid rising inflation and uncertainty over the economy. Since the beginning of the year, gold is up more than 13%. [Link]

Fidelity to Charge $100 Servicing Fee on Some ETFs (The Wealth Advisor)
Starting on June 3rd, Fidelity is set to impose a new service charge on ETFs from a select group of asset managers, including Simplify Asset Management, AXS Investments, and others. The fee targets ETFs from firms not engaged in a specific maintenance agreement with Fidelity to support the technology and services necessary for a secure investor experience (pay to play anyone?). Meanwhile, the broader ETF market continues to grow, with US-listed ETFs holding $8.9 trillion in assets as of the end of March. Notably, ETFs from State Street, Vanguard, and BlackRock saw significant inflows last month, driven by rising interest in domestic equity as the S&P 500 index climbed. [Link]

Sotheby’s Rare Bond to Be Backed by Rembrandt, Warhol Art (BNN Bloomberg)
Sotheby’s Financial Services is preparing to issue a unique $500 million bond backed by art from renowned artists like Rembrandt van Rijn, Andy Warhol, Pablo Picasso, Jean-Michel Basquiat, and Frida Kahlo. The bond involves 89 personal loans secured against artworks and collectibles valued at approximately $2.85 billion. This securitization includes a mix of contemporary art and Old Master paintings, with contemporary pieces accounting for 43% of the total estimated value. Sotheby’s is leveraging its extensive experience in art lending amid a broader market trend of embracing niche asset-backed securities. [Link]

Taxes

Bad tax advice is multiplying on TikTok (Washington Post)
TikTok has become a hotbed for aggressive tax advice, with influencers suggesting questionable strategies to lower tax liabilities. CPA Krystal Todd, with a significant following on TikTok and Instagram, stresses her videos are educational, not advice. Yet, the IRS warns many online tax tips, such as hiring children as employees or deducting personal vacations as business expenses, could lead to fines. Of course, TikTok is a very influential platform, so there is a concern about the impact of such advice on taxpayers’ decisions and potential legal implications. [Link]

Doing Your Taxes Sucks. The IRS Is Fixing That. (The New Republic)
With the April 15th deadline tomorrow, the IRS has been piloting its new Direct File option this year in 12 states for individuals with W2 income, Social Security benefits, unemployment insurance, and interest income below $1,500. Direct File is part of the IRS’s initiative under the Inflation Reduction Act that aims to simplify and economize tax filing. It allows eligible taxpayers to file directly with the IRS, saving them time and money, taking about 30 minutes to complete. So far, results have been positive and could be the start of the IRS expanding options like this in the future. [Link]

College Admissions

Why US Colleges Are Reviving Standardized Tests (Bloomberg)
The pandemic disrupted standardized testing across the US, leading many colleges, including Ivy League schools, to adopt test-optional policies. Recently, however, institutions like Yale, Dartmouth, Brown, and MIT have reinstated mandatory testing requirements. This reversal is partly in response to the Supreme Court’s decision against race-based admissions, pushing colleges to seek new metrics for evaluating applicants. Critics argue that these tests favor wealthier students who can afford extensive preparation. In contrast, some colleges continue to explore alternative admissions criteria to promote equity. [Link]

Baltimore Bridge Collapse

A CIA mission, Howard Hughes and espionage: The history of Baltimore bridge’s crane (Axios)
The enormous crane involved in clearing the collapsed Baltimore bridge, known as Chesapeake 1000 or “Chessy,” has a dramatic history tied to a covert Cold War CIA operation. Originally used to assist in constructing a massive ship for a US spy mission in 1968, Chessy was part of Project AZORIAN to recover a sunken Soviet submarine and its secrets from the Pacific Ocean. Despite the ambitious nature of the mission and partial recovery of the submarine, the operation was exposed in 1975 due to leaked documents. Decades later, Chessy is still operational, now aiding in the cleanup efforts of the recent bridge collapse. [Link]

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