Our Stock Seasonality Tool is one of many interactive features that are part of our premium membership services. The tool allows users to perform a limitless amount of searches for seasonality trends surrounding US and global indices, ETFs, and individual stocks.
One part of the tool simply shows how the S&P 500 has historically performed over the next week, month, and three months from whatever the date is when you open the tool. When we opened the tool today, we noticed that seasonality trends for the next month and three months are pretty dreadful.
Below is a snapshot of the tool from today showing the S&P 500’s median performance over the next week, month, and three months using the last 10 years as our data set (with July 17th close as the starting point).
As shown, the S&P has seen a median gain of 0.56% over the next month, which is actually relatively weak compared to all other one-month periods throughout the calendar year.
The three-month median change is where things look really weak for the stock market. Over the last 10 years, the S&P 500 has seen a median decline of 0.16% during the three-month period from July 17th through October 17th.
Seasonals are definitely not working in the market’s favor in the near term.