For the last couple of months, we’ve been updating Bespoke readers on 2016 election odds. Election outcomes always impact the way investors view various asset classes, but the potential outcomes for the 2016 election take things to another level. Our just released Q3 2016 Market Outlook includes an analysis on how various outcomes in the Presidential and Congressional elections have the potential to impact the market. Be sure to check it out!
Below is a chart of the widely-followed Iowa Electronic Markets‘ contract for 2016’s Presidential winner. After tightening quite dramatically towards the end of May, the odds for the Democratic candidate to become President have recently spiked to new highs. They’re currently at 73% compared to 27% for the Republican candidate’s odds to win.
Republicans currently control both the Senate and the House, but as shown below, betting odds for the 2016 election currently favor a Senate controlled by the Democrats and the House controlled by Republicans (green line). While odds for a Dem Senate/GOP House are at 50%, the next closest odds are for Republicans to maintain control of both chambers.
Along with the Iowa Electronic Markets, another site — electionbettingodds.com — maintains updated “chances of winning” numbers using Betfair.com spreads. As shown below, these odds currently project Hillary Clinton’s chances of becoming President at 75.5% compared to Donald Trump’s chances of just 19.6%.
The electionbettingodds.com site also posts odds for Senate and House control. Odds for the Democrats to take back the Senate are currently at 61% compared to 39% for Republicans to maintain control. Republicans have odds of 89.5% to maintain control of the House.
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