The thousand point thresholds continue to drop like flies these days. With the caveat that a thousand points becomes an increasingly small percentage of the overall index as prices rise, the DJIA just crossed its fifth 1,000 point threshold since Trump’s election last November. The table below shows the date that the DJIA has first crossed each 1,000 point threshold on a closing basis since it first closed above 1,000 back on 11/14/72. For each 1,000-point threshold, we also show how many days transpired between that cross and the prior 1,000 point threshold, the percentage that each 1,000-point threshold represents of the index’s price, and then how many upside and downside crosses the DJIA has had with each level.
Since the election, the DJIA has crossed five 1,000-point thresholds, and with each one, there has been very little in the way of looking back. For instance, once the DJIA crossed 19,000, it never closed back below that level. Once 20,000 was crossed, it only closed below it again once, while 21,000 only saw two subsequent closes below. In looking for comparable periods, the current period is somewhat similar to the late 1990s, when the DJIA crossed several 1,000-point thresholds in very short order. In the current period, these levels have been coming and going a lot faster, but again, it’s important to remember that they represent a much smaller percentage of the overall index’s value than the levels that were crossed in the 1990s. Finally, while it may seem as though the move from 22K to 23K was quick, at 76 calendar days (if that level holds between now and the closing bell), it was longer than the time that elapsed between 20K and 21K (35 days) as well as the time it took to get from 19K to 20K (64 days).
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