On Friday, Bespoke published its Q2 2016 quarterly outlook piece. Our outlook pieces (both annually and quarterly) cover the ins and outs of everything going on in financial markets, with invaluable insights on valuations, technicals, sentiment measures, seasonality, and more. The report is in-depth, but it’s presented in a way that’s extremely easy for investors to digest. That’s what Bespoke is best known for: analyzing complicated market data with unique charts and graphics that are quick and easy to interpret.
Click here to learn how you can access our Q2 2016 quarterly outlook piece with a 20% membership discount.
Below are two charts from our just-published Q2 2016 Bespoke Report outlook piece. The first chart below shows the S&P 500’s longest streaks during the current bull market without making a new bull market high. At 315 days and counting, the current streak is now the longest. With over ten months having passed since the last new bull market high last May, is the market in the midst of a transformation to a bear market?
By itself, the long stretch of time without making a new bull market high is not indicative of a bear market. The second chart below shows the longest stretches of time that transpired without making a new high in each prior bull market for the S&P 500. In the pre-WWII period (light blue), the longest stretch of time was just over three months (105 days). Since WWII (dark blue), though, it has been very common to have extended periods where the S&P 500 goes nine months or more without making a new high. This period could easily just be a pause and re-charge for a bull market that raged for six years from 2009 to early 2015.