Q1 2020 Country Stock Market Performance (Local Currency)
Below is a snapshot of year-to-date country stock market returns through the first quarter of 2020, all in local currency. Of the 72 countries shown, the average year-to-date change is -23.91%, with only one of 72 in the green. A total of 68 out of 72 countries are down more than 10%, while 53 of 72 are down more than 20%.
Investors in the Ukraine are the only ones in the world that can say their stock market is in the black year-to-date. It’s up 0.30%.
On the downside, Argentina and Greece have fallen the most at -40%+, while another 14 are down 30%+. Three of the four BRIC countries are down at least 30% — Brazil, Russia, and India. China is the only BRIC country not down 30%, and in fact, it is one of the best-performing countries year-to-date with a decline of only 10%.
Looking at the major G7 countries, Europe has been hit the hardest with France, Italy, Germany, and the UK all down more than 27.5%. The US is the top-performing G7 with a decline of 20%, while Japan is down 23.6% and Canada is down 21.6%. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium to see our list of “Stocks for the COVID Economy.”
US Equity Index ETFs at the Start of Q2 2020
Below is a snapshot of major US equity index ETFs from our Trend Analyzer tool available to Bespoke members. Every ETF in this group was down 10% or more in the first quarter, with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) down the least at -10.24%. Small-caps (IJR, IWM) and micro-caps (IWC) were the worst performers in Q1 with declines of more than 30%. The S&P 500 (SPY) was down 19.4% in Q1 while the Dow 30 (DIA) was down 22.6%.
Notably, every single major index ETF is now in a long-term downtrend based on our “Trend” scoring system. All but one are trading in oversold territory, which means they’re more than one standard deviation below their 50-day moving averages. QQQ is the only ETF in the group that didn’t end the first quarter of 2020 at oversold levels.
Over the last five days, these ETFs are up 5%+ pretty much across the board. The only exception is the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which is up just 3.7% over the last week. As bad as things look now, they were actually a lot worse a week ago. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium to see our list of “Stocks for the COVID Economy.”
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/1/20 – In Like a Bear…
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Happy April Fool’s Day. If only the picture of the futures market right now were a prank, but those numbers are real (at least for now). After a month-end rally tied to rebalancing, US futures are kicking off the new quarter on a down note as comments from the President last night that his administration now expects 100K – 240K deaths from the COVID-19 outbreak under a best-case scenario has really spooked investors. While those estimates are no doubt concerning, we would reiterate the point we have been making for some time now that the headlines are going to get a lot worse in the days and weeks ahead, so this shouldn’t be a major surprise.
Read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup for a discussion of the latest trends and statistics of the outbreak, overnight moves in the market, and our updated state by state summary of the latest COVID-19 trends in the United States. One notable trend of the summary is that in the state of New York, 1% of the entire population has now been tested.
The S&P 500 is poised to open down over 3.5% this morning and if those numbers hold through the close it would be the 2nd worst start to a quarter in the history of the S&P 500. The only one that was worse was the first trading day of 1932 when the S&P 500 kicked off the quarter with a decline of 6.9%. The only other quarter besides that where the S&P 500 declined more than 3% was in October 1998 during the Russian debt crisis and the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management.
Hopefully, this quarter’s weak start isn’t a sign that we’re in for more of the same in Q2 as we saw in Q1 and March. For starters, the S&P 500’s average daily change during the month of March was 4.8% which ranks as the most volatile month in the history of the S&P 500 (first chart)! Second, with a decline of 20% during the quarter, the S&P 500 had its worst quarter since Q4 2008 and just the 9th 20%+ decline on record (second chart).
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 4/1/20
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world. For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates. The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation. It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy. The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management. It’s published weekly every Wednesday at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.
You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!
The Closer – The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End? – 3/31/20
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we recap the S&P 500’s worst and most volatile quarter on record before reviewing today’s consumer confidence numbers from the Conference Board. We then take a look at equities’ inability to move above their 50-DMAs. Next, we look at quarterly BEA data on the net international investment position of the US and the latest in the Fed’s liquidity provisions. Looking to tomorrow, we close out tonight’s note with the typical intraday pattern of the first day of the new quarter.
See today’s post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Chart of the Day: Streaks of Oversold Readings
Bespoke Market Calendar — April 2020
Please click the image below to view our April 2020 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Start a two-week free trial to one of Bespoke’s three research levels.
Quarter-End Market Performance: Intraday Rallies But A Brutal Last Hour
Since 1983, intraday performance on quarter end has had a dramatic set of swings: from a boring morning to a dramatic afternoon rally and brutal selloff into the close. In the chart below, we show the average and median performance of the S&P 500 (as a percentage change versus the prior day’s close) for all quarter ends since 1983. The market tends towards little change in the morning before running all the way to session highs at 3:00 PM across the course of the afternoon. That tends to preclude an unwind into the close, though, with stocks dropping all the way to flat to down just before the close. The key takeaway for today? Don’t get lulled into complacency by a boring morning or solid start to the afternoon. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.
Conditions headed in to the last day of trading tend to be very important as well. Since 1983, months with stocks down on a month-to-date basis heading in to the final day have seen steady rallies and a close at the highs. The opposite is true for periods when stocks have been up month-to-date on the last trading day. In both cases, quarter-end rebalancing is likely playing a large role. On the other hand, shorter-term rallies like the move seen this week have less of an impact, generally.
The Few, The Proud, The Overbought Stocks
As we have been highlighting in our Sector Snapshot over the past few weeks, finding a stock that is overbought in the current environment has been like searching for a needle in a haystack. There were a few days earlier this month that not a single stock in the S&P 500 was overbought, and even today after a sizable rally in the past week just 1.2% of stocks in the index – 6 stocks- are overbought. In the snapshot from our Trend Analyzer below we show these stocks. While there are some new arrivals to the overbought club, Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Regeneron (REGN), two companies seeking a medical solution to the COVID-19 virus, have been the few names teetering in and out of overbought territory for the past month now. While those two have been overbought on an off and on basis, they are not the most overbought. Citrix Systems (CTXS) holds that title after finishing the day yesterday nearly 3 standard deviations above its 50-DMA. No other stock is nearly as overbought with Digital Realty Trust (DLR) the next most overbought at 2 standard deviations above its 50-DMA. For DLR, along with peer Equinix (EQIX) and Energy stocks Cabot Oil and Gas (COG) the picture today is very different than one week ago when each one was oversold.
Below, we show the chart of these same six stocks. Like the broader market, each one has been very volatile recently but over the past year have generally remained in uptrends with the exception of COG which, like the rest of the sector, has been in a prolonged downtrend. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our Trend Analyzer, Chart Scanner, and more.
Some Charts Hanging In There
Given the route of equities across sectors over the past month and a half as well as the subsequent rally in the past week, most charts out there look very messy. Most have fallen off of a cliff, breaking any notable support levels in the process but others have held up relatively well during the COVID-19 collapse or have at least finally found support like Seagate Tech (STX).
The nature of the businesses of names like Clorox (CLX), Campbell Soup (CPB), Hormel Foods (HRL), and Kroger (KR) never led them to see the same type of massive declines of many other cyclical stocks. Instead they continued to roughly trade within their uptrends and even surge to fresh highs in the beginning of March. After the rotation into the more beaten down names in the past week, these stocks are no longer as extended as they were but they now sit closer to the bottom of their uptrends. For example, earlier this month CPB broke out of the range it had been in for most of 2019 before it sold off back below that range. The past few days’ rally has brought it back into this range. The same can be said for other names like Microsoft (MSFT), Netflix (NFLX), or NVIDIA (NVDA). These stocks had broken their uptrends but the moves had not been sustained to the downside as the past week’s rally has kept those uptrends somewhat in tact. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our custom portfolios, Chart Scanner, Trend Analyzer, and much much more.
