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“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.” – Leo Tolstoy

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Rising crude oil prices are weighing on equity prices this morning, and the picture has weakened ahead of the opening bell. The S&P 500 is on pace to open down 0.4% while the Nasdaq trades down more than 0.5%. Treasury yields are little changed, with the 10-year trading at 4.8% ahead of today’s auction. As already mentioned, crude oil is trading higher, and this morning’s 3% gain has WTI trading above $95 per barrel. Gold is fractionally higher, and Bitcoin is up over 1% and above $79K.

Asian stocks were mixed overnight. The Nikkei and Hang Seng both experienced modest losses of less than 0.3%, while the Kospi rallied 1.4%. In China, August CPI increased 0.4%, which was slightly higher than expected (0.3%) and was the first positive m/m reading since April. In South Korea, the unemployment rate fell from an already low level of 2.8% down to 2.7%.

European stocks are facing steeper losses this morning after Brent crossed the psychologically important $100 level. The STOXX 600 is down more than 1%, and every major benchmark is also down at least 1%, with Spain and France leading the way lower with declines of at least 2%.

There’s no major economic data on the calendar today, but at 1 PM Apple (AAPL) will hold its new product announcement where the foldable iPhone is widely expected to be unveiled. In addition to that product announcement, we’re still in the thick of conference season, so be on watch for isolated tape bombs throughout the day.

Just as Brent topped $100 for the first time since July, WTI is at its highest levels since June this morning (more on that in the commentary section of today’s report). No matter what CPI is on Friday, if crude remains at these levels or even climbs from here, there’s only one direction CPI, and ultimately interest rates, will go from here.

While WTI remains well off its highs from earlier in the year, heating oil is on pace for a new closing high. At $4.73 per gallon, the price is up over 50% from its low in June.

Shifting focus away from the energy markets, Bitcoin prices had a big jump in August right around the time that Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the revised Treasury buyback program. Since that spike higher, though, prices have stalled out just below $80K. That resistance level also coincides with the spring peak when that rally stalled out right at the 200-DMA.

This time around, Bitcoin is well above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. In fact, those moving averages just experienced their first golden cross, where the rising 50-DMA crossed through the rising 200-DMA, since May 2025.

Technicians consider a golden cross to be a positive technical formation, but they don’t always play out that way. The long-term chart of Bitcoin below shows each golden cross with a red dot, and as shown, most golden crosses have been followed by gains.

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